To Tate
Happy Birthday
love from
Aunty Lou, Uncle Graeme,
Hayden, Kelda,
Carrick and Barret
XXXXXX 000000
-- inscription found on a second-hand kid's book,
dated 1986
Joshua is the new John.
Being, as I am, the last individual in the world to be ever named
John, I am quite interested in the history of naming. So much so, in
fact, that I have bothered to compile for your reading enjoyment an
analysis of child naming trends over the past 800 years. This
analysis is based on figures collected in Britain and the US and for
brevity I am only looking at male names although the history of female
names will no doubt become the subject of a future post.
The graphs below show the ranking order of the top twenty names over time.
While ranking doesn't convey a sense of relative population sizes,
names like many things follow a
power law distribution. During most of
the period, at least up until 1800, 25% of the male population had the
top ranked name, 50% had one of the top three names and over 80% had
one of the top ten names.
By the year 1970, the percentage of mindshare owned by the top ten
had dropped still further to around 30% and the top name was now borne by only 5% of the male
population.
It was in this context that yet another batch of names
surged to the fore. Once again these were dominated by the names of
biblical figures and saints but the old practice of adopting surnames
as first names (originally as a way of preserving the mother's maiden
name) finally started to produce a significant number of top twenty
names.
Two observations about the current top twenty names. Firstly, many of
them are already in decline. With an increase in the rate of new name
invention inevitably comes an increase in name extinction and by all
indications, at least half of them will not
be dominant in the next decade. Secondly, they are not representative
of the top names in non-American
English speaking countries.
The data that I used for the post-1880 names came
from the
U.S. Social Security Administration
and while naming trends in Britain and the Australia have
followed pretty much the same pattern as in the US, the post-1970 name choices are different and reflect different recent social
histories and different constellations of
soap opera characters. Britain's
top ten includes names like Jack, Thomas, Oliver and Benjamin while the Australian
top ten contains names like Lachlan, Ethan and Liam.
The biblical name Joshua is looking like a keeper in all three countries though.
The data for the pre-1880 names came from Douglas Galbi's interesting site about names, naming and the information economy.